3907 W Osborn Rd
Maryvale · Phoenix, AZ 85019 · Single-family
- Price
- $289,000
- Est. rent / mo
- $1,725
- Est. cap rate
- 4.15%
- Est. cash-on-cash
- -6.13%
- Est. DSCR
- 0.71
- Rent / price
- 0.597%
- $ / sq ft
- $265
- Est. cash flow / mo
- -$406
At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.
Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These images do not depict this address.
The read
One-bath floor plan is the discount and the opportunity: the utility room adjoins the hall and carries the plumbing wall for a second bath.
- Single bath — add-a-bath candidate
- Evaporative cooler removed
- Detached storage
- No HOA
Facts
| Property type | Single-family |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 3 / 1 |
| Living area | 1,092 sq ft |
| Lot | 6,534 sq ft |
| Year built | 1955 (71 yrs) |
| Stories | 1 |
| Parking | Off-street pad |
| Coordinates | 33.4816, -112.1761 |
| Property tax / yr | $1,680 |
|---|---|
| Insurance / yr | $1,530 |
| HOA / mo | None |
| Other fixed / yr | $360 |
| Total est. operating / yr | $7,462 |
| HVAC installed | 2009 |
| Roof installed | 2013 |
| Water provider | City of Phoenix |
| FEMA flood zone | Zone X |
Underwrite it
Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.
Monthly cash flow
−$406
after debt service, before tax
Cap rate
4.15%
NOI ÷ purchase price
Cash-on-cash
-6.13%
cash flow ÷ cash invested
DSCR
0.71
NOI ÷ annual debt service
Where the gross rent goes
- Vacancy$1,242
- Operating$7,462
- Debt service$16,870
- Cash flow$0
| Gross scheduled income | $20,700 |
|---|---|
| Less vacancy & credit loss | −$1,242 |
| Effective gross income | $19,458 |
| Less fixed operating | −$3,570 |
| Less variable operating | −$3,892 |
| Net operating income | $11,996 |
| Less annual debt service | −$16,870 |
| Pre-tax cash flow | -$4,874 |
| Loan amount | $216,750 |
| Monthly principal & interest | $1,406 |
| Cash invested | $79,475 |
| Operating expense ratio | 38.3% |
| Break-even occupancy | 117.5% |
| Gross rent multiplier | 14.0 |
| Rent-to-price ratio | 0.597% |
Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.
Price history
List-price history
Plotted on a true time axis — the horizontal distance between two points is how long that price actually stood. $9,000 off the original ask, 3.0%.
| Date | Event | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 15, 2026 | Listed | $298,000 | — |
| July 15, 2026 | Price cut | $289,000 | −9,000 |
Estimated value, indexed to the submarket
The current price carried backwards on the Maryvale median-price index. An index adjustment, not an appraisal and not a record of transactions.
| Month | Estimated value |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | $278K |
| Nov 2024 | $282K |
| Dec 2024 | $284K |
| Jan 2025 | $285K |
| Feb 2025 | $285K |
| Mar 2025 | $282K |
| Apr 2025 | $278K |
| May 2025 | $274K |
| Jun 2025 | $271K |
| Jul 2025 | $271K |
| Aug 2025 | $272K |
| Sep 2025 | $275K |
| Oct 2025 | $279K |
| Nov 2025 | $281K |
| Dec 2025 | $282K |
| Jan 2026 | $282K |
| Feb 2026 | $280K |
| Mar 2026 | $279K |
| Apr 2026 | $280K |
| May 2026 | $282K |
| Jun 2026 | $285K |
| Jul 2026 | $288K |
| Aug 2026 | $289K |
| Sep 2026 | $289K |
Comparables
Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 11.5% below the median of its five closest comparables.
| Address | Submarket | Distance | Price | Sq ft | $ / sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3907 W Osborn Rd Subject | Maryvale | — | $289,000 | 1,092 | $265 |
| 4218 N 47th Ave | Maryvale | 0.5 mi | $312,000 | 1,284 | $243 |
| 5122 W Campbell Ave | Maryvale | 0.5 mi | $344,000 | 1,608 | $214 |
| 2840 N 63rd Dr | Maryvale | 0.9 mi | $268,000 | 1,146 | $234 |
| 7048 W Roosevelt St | Maryvale | 1.1 mi | $322,000 | 1,460 | $221 |
Sensitivity
What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.
Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate
Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.
| Price \ Rate | 5.75% | 6.25% | 6.75% | 7.25% | 7.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $266,000−8% | -2.7% | -3.8% | -4.8% | -5.9% | -7.0% |
| $277,500−4% | -3.4% | -4.4% | -5.5% | -6.6% | -7.7% |
| $289,000ask | -4.0% | -5.1% | -6.1% | -7.2% | -8.4% |
| $300,500+4% | -4.6% | -5.6% | -6.7% | -7.8% | -8.9% |
| $312,000+8% | -5.1% | -6.2% | -7.2% | -8.3% | -9.5% |
Cash-on-cash-9.5% → -2.7%
What to check before you commit
HVAC replacement
The condenser dates to 2009 — 17 years old. Phoenix cooling loads shorten service life; a single-system replacement at current pricing is roughly $8,500. Reserve for it or price it into the offer.
Roof
Roof dates to 2013, 13 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.
Flood
FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.
Water allocation
Served by City of Phoenix. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.
No HOA
No association. Nothing constrains rental use at the community level, and there is no fixed monthly charge in the expense line.