8815 E Southern Ave
East Mesa · Mesa, AZ 85208 · Townhome
- Price
- $341,000
- Est. rent / mo
- $1,860
- Est. cap rate
- 3.23%
- Est. cash-on-cash
- -9.48%
- Est. DSCR
- 0.55
- Rent / price
- 0.545%
- $ / sq ft
- $264
- Est. cash flow / mo
- -$741
At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.
Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These images do not depict this address.
The read
The $185 HOA covers roof and exterior paint, which removes two capital items from the reserve — but it is a fixed expense whether or not the unit is occupied.
- HOA $185/mo — covers roof and exterior
- Attached
- Community pool
- Low lot maintenance
Facts
| Property type | Townhome |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 2 / 2 |
| Living area | 1,290 sq ft |
| Lot | 4,356 sq ft |
| Year built | 2001 (25 yrs) |
| Stories | 1 |
| Parking | 1-car garage |
| Coordinates | 33.4016, -111.7261 |
| Property tax / yr | $1,770 |
|---|---|
| Insurance / yr | $1,600 |
| HOA / mo | $185 |
| Other fixed / yr | $180 |
| Total est. operating / yr | $9,966 |
| HVAC installed | 2018 |
| Roof installed | 2019 |
| Water provider | City of Mesa |
| FEMA flood zone | Zone X |
Underwrite it
Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.
Monthly cash flow
−$741
after debt service, before tax
Cap rate
3.23%
NOI ÷ purchase price
Cash-on-cash
-9.48%
cash flow ÷ cash invested
DSCR
0.55
NOI ÷ annual debt service
Where the gross rent goes
- Vacancy$1,339
- Operating$9,966
- Debt service$19,905
- Cash flow$0
| Gross scheduled income | $22,320 |
|---|---|
| Less vacancy & credit loss | −$1,339 |
| Effective gross income | $20,981 |
| Less fixed operating | −$5,770 |
| Less variable operating | −$4,196 |
| Net operating income | $11,015 |
| Less annual debt service | −$19,905 |
| Pre-tax cash flow | -$8,891 |
| Loan amount | $255,750 |
| Monthly principal & interest | $1,659 |
| Cash invested | $93,775 |
| Operating expense ratio | 47.5% |
| Break-even occupancy | 133.8% |
| Gross rent multiplier | 15.3 |
| Rent-to-price ratio | 0.545% |
Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.
Price history
List-price history
Plotted on a true time axis — the horizontal distance between two points is how long that price actually stood. The asking price has not moved since listing.
| Date | Event | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Listed | $341,000 | — |
Estimated value, indexed to the submarket
The current price carried backwards on the East Mesa median-price index. An index adjustment, not an appraisal and not a record of transactions.
| Month | Estimated value |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | $323K |
| Nov 2024 | $324K |
| Dec 2024 | $326K |
| Jan 2025 | $328K |
| Feb 2025 | $330K |
| Mar 2025 | $331K |
| Apr 2025 | $331K |
| May 2025 | $329K |
| Jun 2025 | $327K |
| Jul 2025 | $325K |
| Aug 2025 | $326K |
| Sep 2025 | $328K |
| Oct 2025 | $332K |
| Nov 2025 | $334K |
| Dec 2025 | $335K |
| Jan 2026 | $335K |
| Feb 2026 | $334K |
| Mar 2026 | $332K |
| Apr 2026 | $331K |
| May 2026 | $333K |
| Jun 2026 | $336K |
| Jul 2026 | $339K |
| Aug 2026 | $340K |
| Sep 2026 | $341K |
Comparables
Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 12.1% below the median of its five closest comparables.
| Address | Submarket | Distance | Price | Sq ft | $ / sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8815 E Southern Ave Subject | East Mesa | — | $341,000 | 1,290 | $264 |
| 2919 S Beverly St | Chandler West | 12.1 mi | $428,000 | 1,690 | $253 |
Sensitivity
What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.
Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate
Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.
| Price \ Rate | 5.75% | 6.25% | 6.75% | 7.25% | 7.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $313,500−8% | -6.3% | -7.4% | -8.5% | -9.5% | -10.7% |
| $327,500−4% | -6.9% | -7.9% | -9.0% | -10.1% | -11.2% |
| $341,000ask | -7.4% | -8.4% | -9.5% | -10.6% | -11.7% |
| $354,500+4% | -7.8% | -8.9% | -9.9% | -11.0% | -12.1% |
| $368,500+8% | -8.2% | -9.3% | -10.4% | -11.5% | -12.6% |
Cash-on-cash-12.6% → -6.3%
What to check before you commit
HVAC
Condenser installed 2018, 8 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.
Roof
Roof dates to 2019, 7 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.
Flood
FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.
Water allocation
Served by City of Mesa. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.
HOA
$185 a month, $2,220 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.