10233 E Keats Ave
East Mesa · Mesa, AZ 85209 · Single-family
- Price
- $392,000
- Est. rent / mo
- $2,115
- Est. cap rate
- 3.52%
- Est. cash-on-cash
- -8.44%
- Est. DSCR
- 0.60
- Rent / price
- 0.540%
- $ / sq ft
- $225
- Est. cash flow / mo
- -$758
At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.
Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These images do not depict this address.
The read
Seventy-nine days and two cuts. East Mesa carries the highest inventory in the panel; time on market here is a supply signal, not a property signal.
- HOA $95/mo
- Two cuts in 79 days
- Community pool
- North/south exposure
Facts
| Property type | Single-family |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 3 / 2 |
| Living area | 1,740 sq ft |
| Lot | 6,534 sq ft |
| Year built | 1998 (28 yrs) |
| Stories | 1 |
| Parking | 2-car garage |
| Coordinates | 33.3974, -111.7322 |
| Property tax / yr | $2,040 |
|---|---|
| Insurance / yr | $1,760 |
| HOA / mo | $95 |
| Other fixed / yr | $360 |
| Total est. operating / yr | $10,071 |
| HVAC installed | 2016 |
| Roof installed | 2018 |
| Water provider | City of Mesa |
| FEMA flood zone | Zone X |
Underwrite it
Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.
Monthly cash flow
−$758
after debt service, before tax
Cap rate
3.52%
NOI ÷ purchase price
Cash-on-cash
-8.44%
cash flow ÷ cash invested
DSCR
0.60
NOI ÷ annual debt service
Where the gross rent goes
- Vacancy$1,523
- Operating$10,071
- Debt service$22,883
- Cash flow$0
| Gross scheduled income | $25,380 |
|---|---|
| Less vacancy & credit loss | −$1,523 |
| Effective gross income | $23,857 |
| Less fixed operating | −$5,300 |
| Less variable operating | −$4,771 |
| Net operating income | $13,786 |
| Less annual debt service | −$22,883 |
| Pre-tax cash flow | -$9,097 |
| Loan amount | $294,000 |
| Monthly principal & interest | $1,907 |
| Cash invested | $107,800 |
| Operating expense ratio | 42.2% |
| Break-even occupancy | 129.8% |
| Gross rent multiplier | 15.4 |
| Rent-to-price ratio | 0.540% |
Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.
Price history
List-price history
Plotted on a true time axis — the horizontal distance between two points is how long that price actually stood. $17,000 off the original ask, 4.2%.
| Date | Event | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 8, 2026 | Listed | $409,000 | — |
| July 8, 2026 | Price cut | $400,500 | −8,500 |
| August 8, 2026 | Price cut | $392,000 | −8,500 |
Estimated value, indexed to the submarket
The current price carried backwards on the East Mesa median-price index. An index adjustment, not an appraisal and not a record of transactions.
| Month | Estimated value |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | $372K |
| Nov 2024 | $372K |
| Dec 2024 | $374K |
| Jan 2025 | $377K |
| Feb 2025 | $380K |
| Mar 2025 | $381K |
| Apr 2025 | $380K |
| May 2025 | $378K |
| Jun 2025 | $375K |
| Jul 2025 | $374K |
| Aug 2025 | $375K |
| Sep 2025 | $377K |
| Oct 2025 | $381K |
| Nov 2025 | $384K |
| Dec 2025 | $385K |
| Jan 2026 | $385K |
| Feb 2026 | $383K |
| Mar 2026 | $381K |
| Apr 2026 | $381K |
| May 2026 | $383K |
| Jun 2026 | $386K |
| Jul 2026 | $389K |
| Aug 2026 | $391K |
| Sep 2026 | $392K |
Comparables
Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 5.2% above the median of its five closest comparables.
| Address | Submarket | Distance | Price | Sq ft | $ / sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10233 E Keats Ave Subject | East Mesa | — | $392,000 | 1,740 | $225 |
| 2231 N Recker Rd | East Mesa | 0.9 mi | $448,000 | 2,280 | $196 |
| 638 S Extension Rd | West Mesa | 7.5 mi | $349,000 | 1,465 | $238 |
| 1240 W 8th Pl | West Mesa | 7.8 mi | $318,000 | 1,310 | $243 |
| 525 W Baseline Rd | Tempe South | 10.7 mi | $542,000 | 1,985 | $273 |
Sensitivity
What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.
Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate
Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.
| Price \ Rate | 5.75% | 6.25% | 6.75% | 7.25% | 7.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $360,500−8% | -5.2% | -6.2% | -7.3% | -8.4% | -9.5% |
| $376,500−4% | -5.8% | -6.8% | -7.9% | -9.0% | -10.1% |
| $392,000ask | -6.3% | -7.4% | -8.4% | -9.5% | -10.7% |
| $407,500+4% | -6.8% | -7.8% | -8.9% | -10.0% | -11.1% |
| $423,500+8% | -7.3% | -8.3% | -9.4% | -10.5% | -11.6% |
Cash-on-cash-11.6% → -5.2%
What to check before you commit
HVAC
Condenser installed 2016, 10 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.
Roof
Roof dates to 2018, 8 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.
Flood
FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.
Water allocation
Served by City of Mesa. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.
HOA
$95 a month, $1,140 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.