Panel vintageSeptember 1, 2026Demonstration data — not live MLS
Parcel
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1907 E Watson Dr

Tempe South · Tempe, AZ 85283 · Single-family

Active24 days on marketID P-039
Price
$496,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,480
Est. cap rate
3.20%
Est. cash-on-cash
-9.58%
Est. DSCR
0.55
Rent / price
0.500%
$ / sq ft
$306
Est. cash flow / mo
-$1,089

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

1907 E Watson Dr — two-storey tract elevation with stone veneer and a wide driveway
1907 E Watson Dr — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring
1907 E Watson Dr — fenced rear yard with a rectangular pool and travertine deck
1907 E Watson Dr — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio
1907 E Watson Dr — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These images do not depict this address.

The read

Tempe is effectively built out; new supply is redevelopment only. That constraint is the whole thesis for accepting a low going-in yield here.

  • Pool
  • Tempe — built-out city
  • Mature landscaping
  • No HOA

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms3 / 2
Living area1,620 sq ft
Lot7,100 sq ft
Year built1978 (48 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Coordinates33.3600, -111.9189
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$3,030
Insurance / yr$2,140
HOA / moNone
Other fixed / yr$1,320
Total est. operating / yr$12,085
HVAC installed2019
Roof installed2020
Water providerCity of Tempe
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$1,089

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.20%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-9.58%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.55

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,786
  • Operating$12,085
  • Debt service$28,953
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$29,760
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,786
Effective gross income$27,974
Less fixed operating−$6,490
Less variable operating−$5,595
Net operating income$15,890
Less annual debt service−$28,953
Pre-tax cash flow-$13,064
Loan amount$372,000
Monthly principal & interest$2,413
Cash invested$136,400
Operating expense ratio43.2%
Break-even occupancy137.9%
Gross rent multiplier16.7
Rent-to-price ratio0.500%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

Price history

List-price history

Plotted on a true time axis — the horizontal distance between two points is how long that price actually stood. The asking price has not moved since listing.

$450,000$475,000$500,000$525,000Sep 26

List-price events
DateEventPriceChange
August 6, 2026Listed$496,000—

Estimated value, indexed to the submarket

The current price carried backwards on the Tempe South median-price index. An index adjustment, not an appraisal and not a record of transactions.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 8.8% above the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and straight-line distance.

Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and straight-line distance.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
1907 E Watson Dr (subject)subject · 3/2 · 1,620 sq ft/unit$2,480
3440 W Chandler Blvd3.2 mi · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$2,380
525 W Baseline Rd0.5 mi · 4/2 · 1,985 sq ft/unit$2,620
638 S Extension Rd5.3 mi · 3/2 · 1,465 sq ft/unit$2,010
2919 S Beverly St5 mi · 3/3 · 1,690 sq ft/unit$2,280
1240 W 8th Pl4.9 mi · 3/2 · 1,310 sq ft/unit$1,905
Sale comparables — nearest 4 assets of the same type
AddressSubmarketDistancePriceSq ft$ / sq ft
1907 E Watson Dr SubjectTempe South—$496,0001,620$306
525 W Baseline RdTempe South0.5 mi$542,0001,985$273
3440 W Chandler BlvdChandler West3.2 mi$468,0001,780$263
1155 E Warner RdChandler West3.4 mi$512,0002,240$229
1240 W 8th PlWest Mesa4.9 mi$318,0001,310$243

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$456,500−8%-6.4%-7.5%-8.6%-9.7%-10.8%
$476,000−4%-7.0%-8.0%-9.1%-10.2%-11.3%
$496,000ask-7.4%-8.5%-9.6%-10.7%-11.8%
$516,000+4%-7.9%-9.0%-10.0%-11.1%-12.2%
$535,500+8%-8.3%-9.4%-10.4%-11.5%-12.7%

Cash-on-cash-12.7% → -6.4%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2019, 7 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2020, 6 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Tempe. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • No HOA

    No association. Nothing constrains rental use at the community level, and there is no fixed monthly charge in the expense line.