BKY-03
Buckeye · Buckeye, AZ 85326 · Single-family
- Asking
- $388,000
- Est. rent / mo
- $2,260
- Est. cap rate
- 3.62%
- Est. cash-on-cash
- -8.05%
- Est. DSCR
- 0.62
- Rent / price
- 0.582%
- $ / sq ft
- $160
- Est. cash flow / mo
- -$716
At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.
Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.
The read
Four years old with a three-car garage. Pre-market, so there is no marketing history to read yet — the screen has to carry the whole judgement.
- Pre-market — not yet released
- Built 2022
- HOA $118/mo
- Three-car garage
Facts
| Property type | Single-family |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 4 / 3 |
| Living area | 2,420 sq ft |
| Lot | 7,100 sq ft |
| Year built | 2022 (4 yrs) |
| Stories | 2 |
| Parking | 3-car garage |
| Panel code | BKY-03 |
| Location | Buckeye, Buckeye 85326 |
| Property tax / yr | $2,560 |
|---|---|
| Insurance / yr | $2,000 |
| HOA / mo | $118 |
| Other fixed / yr | $360 |
| Total est. operating / yr | $11,435 |
| HVAC installed | 2022 |
| Roof installed | 2022 |
| Water provider | EPCOR Water |
| FEMA flood zone | Zone X |
Underwrite it
Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.
Monthly cash flow
−$716
after debt service, before tax
Cap rate
3.62%
NOI ÷ purchase price
Cash-on-cash
-8.05%
cash flow ÷ cash invested
DSCR
0.62
NOI ÷ annual debt service
Where the gross rent goes
- Vacancy$1,627
- Operating$11,435
- Debt service$22,649
- Cash flow$0
| Gross scheduled income | $27,120 |
|---|---|
| Less vacancy & credit loss | −$1,627 |
| Effective gross income | $25,493 |
| Less fixed operating | −$6,336 |
| Less variable operating | −$5,099 |
| Net operating income | $14,058 |
| Less annual debt service | −$22,649 |
| Pre-tax cash flow | -$8,591 |
| Loan amount | $291,000 |
| Monthly principal & interest | $1,887 |
| Cash invested | $106,700 |
| Operating expense ratio | 44.9% |
| Break-even occupancy | 125.7% |
| Gross rent multiplier | 14.3 |
| Rent-to-price ratio | 0.582% |
Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.
What it would have to cost
The asking price against three solved thresholds
Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.
| Condition | Price | vs ask | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current asking price | $388,000 | — | The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it. |
| DSCR 1.00 | $241,000 | −37.9% | net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero |
| Submarket median cap (3.62%) | $388,500 | +0.1% | the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields |
| Leverage turns (5.84%) | $241,000 | −37.9% | above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it |
Asking price carried on the submarket index
The current asking price projected backwards on the Buckeye median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.
| Month | Index-adjusted ask |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | $368K |
| Nov 2024 | $369K |
| Dec 2024 | $370K |
| Jan 2025 | $373K |
| Feb 2025 | $376K |
| Mar 2025 | $377K |
| Apr 2025 | $376K |
| May 2025 | $375K |
| Jun 2025 | $372K |
| Jul 2025 | $370K |
| Aug 2025 | $371K |
| Sep 2025 | $373K |
| Oct 2025 | $377K |
| Nov 2025 | $380K |
| Dec 2025 | $381K |
| Jan 2026 | $381K |
| Feb 2026 | $379K |
| Mar 2026 | $377K |
| Apr 2026 | $377K |
| May 2026 | $379K |
| Jun 2026 | $382K |
| Jul 2026 | $385K |
| Aug 2026 | $387K |
| Sep 2026 | $388K |
Comparables
Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 8.5% below the median of its five closest comparables.
| Asset | Submarket | Proximity | Ask | Sq ft | $ / sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKY-03 Subject | Buckeye | — | $388,000 | 2,420 | $160 |
| BKY-01 | Buckeye | Same submarket | $366,000 | 2,260 | $162 |
| BKY-02 | Buckeye | Same submarket | $341,000 | 1,780 | $192 |
| LVN-02 | Laveen | Elsewhere in metro | $458,000 | 2,640 | $173 |
| AVD-01 | Avondale | Elsewhere in metro | $382,000 | 2,160 | $177 |
Sensitivity
What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.
Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate
Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.
| Price \ Rate | 5.75% | 6.25% | 6.75% | 7.25% | 7.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $357,000−8% | -4.8% | -5.8% | -6.9% | -8.0% | -9.1% |
| $372,500−4% | -5.4% | -6.4% | -7.5% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
| $388,000ask | -5.9% | -7.0% | -8.1% | -9.2% | -10.3% |
| $403,500+4% | -6.4% | -7.5% | -8.6% | -9.7% | -10.8% |
| $419,000+8% | -6.9% | -8.0% | -9.0% | -10.1% | -11.2% |
Cash-on-cash-11.2% → -4.8%
What to check before you commit
HVAC
Condenser installed 2022, 4 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.
Roof
Roof dates to 2022, 4 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.
Flood
FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.
Water allocation
Served by EPCOR Water. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.
HOA
$118 a month, $1,416 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.