AVD-01
Avondale · Avondale, AZ 85392 · Single-family
- Asking
- $382,000
- Est. rent / mo
- $2,180
- Est. cap rate
- 3.62%
- Est. cash-on-cash
- -8.07%
- Est. DSCR
- 0.62
- Rent / price
- 0.571%
- $ / sq ft
- $177
- Est. cash flow / mo
- -$707
At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.
Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.
The read
Twenty-year-old systems. Underwrite a condenser replacement in year one and it still clears — that is the case, and it is a thin one.
- HOA $98/mo
- Original systems (2006)
- Loft
Facts
| Property type | Single-family |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 4 / 3 |
| Living area | 2,160 sq ft |
| Lot | 6,098 sq ft |
| Year built | 2006 (20 yrs) |
| Stories | 2 |
| Parking | 2-car garage |
| Panel code | AVD-01 |
| Location | Avondale, Avondale 85392 |
| Property tax / yr | $2,410 |
|---|---|
| Insurance / yr | $1,910 |
| HOA / mo | $98 |
| Other fixed / yr | $360 |
| Total est. operating / yr | $10,774 |
| HVAC installed | 2006 |
| Roof installed | 2006 |
| Water provider | City of Avondale |
| FEMA flood zone | Zone X |
Underwrite it
Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.
Monthly cash flow
−$707
after debt service, before tax
Cap rate
3.62%
NOI ÷ purchase price
Cash-on-cash
-8.07%
cash flow ÷ cash invested
DSCR
0.62
NOI ÷ annual debt service
Where the gross rent goes
- Vacancy$1,570
- Operating$10,774
- Debt service$22,299
- Cash flow$0
| Gross scheduled income | $26,160 |
|---|---|
| Less vacancy & credit loss | −$1,570 |
| Effective gross income | $24,590 |
| Less fixed operating | −$5,856 |
| Less variable operating | −$4,918 |
| Net operating income | $13,816 |
| Less annual debt service | −$22,299 |
| Pre-tax cash flow | -$8,482 |
| Loan amount | $286,500 |
| Monthly principal & interest | $1,858 |
| Cash invested | $105,050 |
| Operating expense ratio | 43.8% |
| Break-even occupancy | 126.4% |
| Gross rent multiplier | 14.6 |
| Rent-to-price ratio | 0.571% |
Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.
What it would have to cost
The asking price against three solved thresholds
Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.
| Condition | Price | vs ask | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current asking price | $382,000 | — | The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it. |
| DSCR 1.00 | $236,500 | −38.1% | net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero |
| Submarket median cap (3.70%) | $373,500 | −2.2% | the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields |
| Leverage turns (5.84%) | $236,500 | −38.1% | above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it |
Asking price carried on the submarket index
The current asking price projected backwards on the Avondale median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.
| Month | Index-adjusted ask |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | $362K |
| Nov 2024 | $363K |
| Dec 2024 | $365K |
| Jan 2025 | $368K |
| Feb 2025 | $370K |
| Mar 2025 | $371K |
| Apr 2025 | $371K |
| May 2025 | $369K |
| Jun 2025 | $366K |
| Jul 2025 | $364K |
| Aug 2025 | $365K |
| Sep 2025 | $368K |
| Oct 2025 | $371K |
| Nov 2025 | $374K |
| Dec 2025 | $375K |
| Jan 2026 | $375K |
| Feb 2026 | $374K |
| Mar 2026 | $371K |
| Apr 2026 | $371K |
| May 2026 | $373K |
| Jun 2026 | $376K |
| Jul 2026 | $379K |
| Aug 2026 | $381K |
| Sep 2026 | $382K |
Comparables
Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 1.9% above the median of its five closest comparables.
| Asset | Submarket | Proximity | Ask | Sq ft | $ / sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVD-01 Subject | Avondale | — | $382,000 | 2,160 | $177 |
| AVD-02 | Avondale | Same submarket | $358,000 | 1,610 | $222 |
| AVD-03 | Avondale | Same submarket | $324,000 | 1,425 | $227 |
| LVN-02 | Laveen | Elsewhere in metro | $458,000 | 2,640 | $173 |
| BKY-02 | Buckeye | Elsewhere in metro | $341,000 | 1,780 | $192 |
Sensitivity
What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.
Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate
Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.
| Price \ Rate | 5.75% | 6.25% | 6.75% | 7.25% | 7.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $351,500−8% | -4.8% | -5.9% | -6.9% | -8.0% | -9.2% |
| $366,500−4% | -5.4% | -6.4% | -7.5% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
| $382,000ask | -5.9% | -7.0% | -8.1% | -9.2% | -10.3% |
| $397,500+4% | -6.5% | -7.5% | -8.6% | -9.7% | -10.8% |
| $412,500+8% | -6.9% | -8.0% | -9.0% | -10.1% | -11.3% |
Cash-on-cash-11.3% → -4.8%
What to check before you commit
HVAC replacement
The condenser dates to 2006 — 20 years old. Phoenix cooling loads shorten service life; a single-system replacement at current pricing is roughly $8,500. Reserve for it or price it into the offer.
Roof at end of life
Roof dates to 2006. At 20 years, insurers in this market increasingly decline or surcharge; a replacement should be assumed rather than hoped against.
Flood
FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.
Water allocation
Served by City of Avondale. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.
HOA
$98 a month, $1,176 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.