Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
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Four scenarios, computed not claimed

These are not case studies. Nobody bought any of these, there is no buyer named on this page and there is not a single quotation on it. What each one has instead is a full set of stated inputs and a full set of outputs computed from them by the same model that runs the screener — so you can disagree with an assumption and see exactly what your disagreement is worth.

Scenarios
4
Combined all-in
$2,484,175
Mean cap at stabilisation
6.12%
Clearing DSCR 1.00
3 of 4

Computed at 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation, with the vacancy assumption stated per scenario.

Unit turns on a legacy fourplex

Fourplex, four 2/1 units · Alhambra, Phoenix

Value-add, small multifamily
Purchase
$498,000
Rehab
$62,000
Closing at 2.5%
$12,450
Stabilised rent / mo
$4,820
Vacancy assumption
8%
Computed figures for the Unit turns on a legacy fourplex scenario
All-in basis$572,450
Cash invested$198,950
NOI / yr$34,910
Cap rate at stabilisation7.01%
Cash-on-cash2.94%
DSCR1.20

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow$5,840(money)
  • Amortisation$3,981(money)
  • Appreciation mark$9,960(not money)

Four small doors carry four sets of turnover costs and one set of fixed expenses. That is the trade the whole small-multifamily case rests on: the expense ratio is worse than a house and the income is far harder to lose all at once.

Most likely to be wrong: The 8% vacancy assumption. One-bedroom units re-lease quickly but turn often; at 12% this example stops clearing its debt service.

Rehab, let, refinance

Single-family, 4/2, 1,780 sq ft · Laveen, Phoenix

Buy, rehab, refinance
Purchase
$296,000
Rehab
$48,500
Closing at 2.5%
$7,400
Stabilised rent / mo
$2,290
Vacancy assumption
6%
Computed figures for the Rehab, let, refinance scenario
All-in basis$351,900
Cash invested$129,900
NOI / yr$15,759
Cap rate at stabilisation5.32%
Cash-on-cash-1.17%
DSCR0.91

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow-$1,520(money)
  • Amortisation$2,366(money)
  • Appreciation mark$4,440(not money)

The refinance is not modelled here, and that is deliberate. What the model can say is what the asset earns once it is let. What it cannot say is what an appraiser will decide the finished house is worth — so the plan that depends on that number is the plan that carries the risk.

Most likely to be wrong: The rehab budget. At $48,500 this example works; every $10,000 over adds roughly 0.7 points to the cash invested and takes the cash-on-cash below 2%.

The same money, a house or a duplex

Duplex, two 2/1 units · West Mesa

Stabilised, small multifamily
Purchase
$358,000
Rehab
$14,000
Closing at 2.5%
$8,950
Stabilised rent / mo
$2,980
Vacancy assumption
7%
Computed figures for the The same money, a house or a duplex scenario
All-in basis$380,950
Cash invested$112,450
NOI / yr$21,465
Cap rate at stabilisation6.00%
Cash-on-cash0.50%
DSCR1.03

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow$568(money)
  • Amortisation$2,862(money)
  • Appreciation mark$5,370(not money)

A duplex at this price collects roughly a third more rent than a single house at the same price and spends most of that difference on owner-paid water, a second set of appliances and a worse expense ratio. What survives is the point of the exercise — and it is smaller than the rent difference suggests.

Most likely to be wrong: Owner-paid water. It is carried at $900 a year here; on an unmetered 1970s system a hot summer can double it.

What sub-metering is actually worth

Eight 1/1 units, 1976 vintage · Glendale Central

Operating change, small multifamily
Purchase
$1,035,000
Rehab
$118,000
Closing at 2.5%
$25,875
Stabilised rent / mo
$8,960
Vacancy assumption
8%
Computed figures for the What sub-metering is actually worth scenario
All-in basis$1,178,875
Cash invested$402,625
NOI / yr$63,775
Cap rate at stabilisation6.16%
Cash-on-cash0.83%
DSCR1.06

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow$3,358(money)
  • Amortisation$8,273(money)
  • Appreciation mark$15,525(not money)

Owner-paid water on eight doors is the largest controllable line in this example. Cutting it by a third is worth more to the net operating income than a $50 rent increase on every unit — and unlike the rent increase, it does not depend on the market agreeing.

Most likely to be wrong: That the saving holds. Sub-metering changes behaviour in year one; the year-three consumption is the number nobody has.

How to read these

In every one of the four, amortisation and the appreciation mark are larger than the cash flow. That is the honest shape of a levered residential asset in a market where the mortgage constant sits above most going-in cap rates, and it is worth seeing plainly: a plan that depends on appreciation is a different plan from one that depends on income, and it carries a different risk.

The appreciation component is the one number here that is not money. It is the stated index assumption applied to the purchase price — a mark, not a receipt. Cash flow and amortisation are arithmetic on the loan and the rent; appreciation is arithmetic on a guess about the future. We keep the three apart on the card for exactly that reason, and we would rather show a small honest cash-flow bar next to a large speculative one than blend them into a single "return".

Each card ends with the assumption most likely to be wrong. That is deliberate. A worked example that only shows the case for doing something is an advertisement; the useful part is knowing which input, if you have it wrong, breaks the whole thing.

What is not on this page, and why. An earlier version of this site carried four "transactions" here, each with a named buyer, a hold period, a quotation and a story about a refinance that came in under model. None of it happened. A demonstration site inventing a customer and then quoting them is fabricating evidence, so the names, the quotes and the transaction framing are gone and the arithmetic — the only part that was ever true — is what remains.

Demonstration site. Parcel is a fictional business created for this design template. Every asset, price, rent and market figure is synthetic sample data — not a real property, not a real listing and not a real transaction. The panel publishes no street addresses and no coordinates, because a plausible house number on a real street is somebody’s actual home. Photography is representative stock and depicts no asset in this panel.

Not investment, tax or legal advice. All returns shown are estimates produced by a model from assumptions you can change, not offers, appraisals or guarantees. Real results differ. Consult your own licensed advisers before acting.