Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
Contact the desk

BKY-02

Buckeye · Buckeye, AZ 85326 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 2018
Asking
$341,000
Est. rent / mo
$1,990
Est. cap rate
3.62%
Est. cash-on-cash
-8.05%
Est. DSCR
0.62
Rent / price
0.584%
$ / sq ft
$192
Est. cash flow / mo
-$629

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — two-storey tract elevation with stone veneer and a wide driveway. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — exterior condenser units on a gravel pad. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Competing directly with the builder half a mile away, who can buy a rate down and a resale cannot. That is a pricing constraint on this row for as long as the subdivision is still selling.

  • HOA $102/mo
  • Community park
  • Paver patio

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms3 / 2
Living area1,780 sq ft
Lot5,663 sq ft
Year built2018 (8 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Panel codeBKY-02
LocationBuckeye, Buckeye 85326
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$2,250
Insurance / yr$1,770
HOA / mo$102
Other fixed / yr$360
Total est. operating / yr$10,093
HVAC installed2018
Roof installed2018
Water providerEPCOR Water
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$629

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.62%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-8.05%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.62

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,433
  • Operating$10,093
  • Debt service$19,905
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$23,880
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,433
Effective gross income$22,447
Less fixed operating−$5,604
Less variable operating−$4,489
Net operating income$12,354
Less annual debt service−$19,905
Pre-tax cash flow-$7,552
Loan amount$255,750
Monthly principal & interest$1,659
Cash invested$93,775
Operating expense ratio45.0%
Break-even occupancy125.6%
Gross rent multiplier14.3
Rent-to-price ratio0.584%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.62% cap rate, -8.05% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.62.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$341,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
DSCR 1.00$211,500−38.0%net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero
Submarket median cap (3.62%)$341,500+0.1%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields
Leverage turns (5.84%)$211,500−38.0%above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the Buckeye median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 10.0% below the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • BKY-02Subjectsubject · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit
    $1,990
  • BKY-01Same submarket · 4/3 · 2,260 sq ft/unit
    $2,140
  • LVN-03Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit
    $2,210
  • CHW-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit
    $2,380
  • EMS-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,740 sq ft/unit
    $2,115
  • ENC-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,690 sq ft/unit
    $2,650
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
BKY-02 (subject)subject · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$1,990
BKY-01Same submarket · 4/3 · 2,260 sq ft/unit$2,140
LVN-03Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$2,210
CHW-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$2,380
EMS-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,740 sq ft/unit$2,115
ENC-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,690 sq ft/unit$2,650
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
BKY-02 SubjectBuckeye—$341,0001,780$192
BKY-01BuckeyeSame submarket$366,0002,260$162
BKY-03BuckeyeSame submarket$388,0002,420$160
EMS-03East MesaElsewhere in metro$448,0002,280$196
LVN-01LaveenElsewhere in metro$431,0002,185$197

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$313,500−8%-4.8%-5.8%-6.9%-8.0%-9.1%
$327,500−4%-5.4%-6.4%-7.5%-8.6%-9.7%
$341,000ask-5.9%-7.0%-8.1%-9.2%-10.3%
$354,500+4%-6.4%-7.5%-8.6%-9.7%-10.8%
$368,500+8%-6.9%-8.0%-9.0%-10.1%-11.3%

Cash-on-cash-11.3% → -4.8%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2018, 8 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2018, 8 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by EPCOR Water. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • HOA

    $102 a month, $1,224 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.