AVD-03
Avondale · Avondale, AZ 85323 · Single-family
- Asking
- $324,000
- Est. rent / mo
- $1,935
- Est. cap rate
- 3.87%
- Est. cash-on-cash
- -7.14%
- Est. DSCR
- 0.66
- Rent / price
- 0.597%
- $ / sq ft
- $227
- Est. cash flow / mo
- -$530
At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.
Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.
The read
Everything mechanical is original to 2004 — roof, condenser and water heater all due inside the first five years of a hold. Priced like it. Screen it, then inspect it properly.
- HOA $72/mo
- Original systems
- Corner lot
Facts
| Property type | Single-family |
|---|---|
| Units | 1 |
| Bedrooms / bathrooms | 3 / 2 |
| Living area | 1,425 sq ft |
| Lot | 5,227 sq ft |
| Year built | 2004 (22 yrs) |
| Stories | 1 |
| Parking | 2-car garage |
| Panel code | AVD-03 |
| Location | Avondale, Avondale 85323 |
| Property tax / yr | $2,040 |
|---|---|
| Insurance / yr | $1,650 |
| HOA / mo | $72 |
| Other fixed / yr | $360 |
| Total est. operating / yr | $9,279 |
| HVAC installed | 2004 |
| Roof installed | 2004 |
| Water provider | City of Avondale |
| FEMA flood zone | Zone X |
Underwrite it
Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.
Monthly cash flow
−$530
after debt service, before tax
Cap rate
3.87%
NOI ÷ purchase price
Cash-on-cash
-7.14%
cash flow ÷ cash invested
DSCR
0.66
NOI ÷ annual debt service
Where the gross rent goes
- Vacancy$1,393
- Operating$9,279
- Debt service$18,913
- Cash flow$0
| Gross scheduled income | $23,220 |
|---|---|
| Less vacancy & credit loss | −$1,393 |
| Effective gross income | $21,827 |
| Less fixed operating | −$4,914 |
| Less variable operating | −$4,365 |
| Net operating income | $12,547 |
| Less annual debt service | −$18,913 |
| Pre-tax cash flow | -$6,366 |
| Loan amount | $243,000 |
| Monthly principal & interest | $1,576 |
| Cash invested | $89,100 |
| Operating expense ratio | 42.5% |
| Break-even occupancy | 121.4% |
| Gross rent multiplier | 14.0 |
| Rent-to-price ratio | 0.597% |
Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.
What it would have to cost
The asking price against three solved thresholds
Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.
| Condition | Price | vs ask | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current asking price | $324,000 | — | The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it. |
| DSCR 1.00 | $215,000 | −33.6% | net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero |
| Submarket median cap (3.70%) | $339,000 | +4.6% | the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields |
| Leverage turns (5.84%) | $215,000 | −33.6% | above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it |
Asking price carried on the submarket index
The current asking price projected backwards on the Avondale median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.
| Month | Index-adjusted ask |
|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | $307K |
| Nov 2024 | $308K |
| Dec 2024 | $309K |
| Jan 2025 | $312K |
| Feb 2025 | $314K |
| Mar 2025 | $315K |
| Apr 2025 | $314K |
| May 2025 | $313K |
| Jun 2025 | $310K |
| Jul 2025 | $309K |
| Aug 2025 | $310K |
| Sep 2025 | $312K |
| Oct 2025 | $315K |
| Nov 2025 | $317K |
| Dec 2025 | $318K |
| Jan 2026 | $318K |
| Feb 2026 | $317K |
| Mar 2026 | $315K |
| Apr 2026 | $315K |
| May 2026 | $316K |
| Jun 2026 | $319K |
| Jul 2026 | $322K |
| Aug 2026 | $323K |
| Sep 2026 | $324K |
Comparables
Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 4.2% below the median of its five closest comparables.
| Asset | Submarket | Proximity | Ask | Sq ft | $ / sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVD-03 Subject | Avondale | — | $324,000 | 1,425 | $227 |
| AVD-02 | Avondale | Same submarket | $358,000 | 1,610 | $222 |
| AVD-01 | Avondale | Same submarket | $382,000 | 2,160 | $177 |
| CHW-01 | Chandler West | Elsewhere in metro | $512,000 | 2,240 | $229 |
| LVN-04 | Laveen | Elsewhere in metro | $372,000 | 1,622 | $229 |
Sensitivity
What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.
Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate
Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.
| Price \ Rate | 5.75% | 6.25% | 6.75% | 7.25% | 7.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $298,000−8% | -3.8% | -4.8% | -5.9% | -7.0% | -8.1% |
| $311,000−4% | -4.4% | -5.5% | -6.6% | -7.7% | -8.8% |
| $324,000ask | -5.0% | -6.1% | -7.1% | -8.2% | -9.4% |
| $337,000+4% | -5.6% | -6.6% | -7.7% | -8.8% | -9.9% |
| $350,000+8% | -6.1% | -7.1% | -8.2% | -9.3% | -10.4% |
Cash-on-cash-10.4% → -3.8%
What to check before you commit
HVAC replacement
The condenser dates to 2004 — 22 years old. Phoenix cooling loads shorten service life; a single-system replacement at current pricing is roughly $8,500. Reserve for it or price it into the offer.
Roof at end of life
Roof dates to 2004. At 22 years, insurers in this market increasingly decline or surcharge; a replacement should be assumed rather than hoped against.
Flood
FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.
Water allocation
Served by City of Avondale. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.
HOA
$72 a month, $864 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.