Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
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TMP-01

Tempe South · Tempe, AZ 85283 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 1978
Asking
$496,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,480
Est. cap rate
3.20%
Est. cash-on-cash
-9.58%
Est. DSCR
0.55
Rent / price
0.500%
$ / sq ft
$306
Est. cash flow / mo
-$1,089

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — two-storey tract elevation with stone veneer and a wide driveway. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — fenced rear yard with a rectangular pool and travertine deck. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Tempe is effectively built out; new supply is redevelopment only. That constraint is the whole thesis for accepting a low going-in yield here.

  • Pool
  • Tempe — built-out city
  • Mature landscaping
  • No HOA

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms3 / 2
Living area1,620 sq ft
Lot7,100 sq ft
Year built1978 (48 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Panel codeTMP-01
LocationTempe South, Tempe 85283
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$3,030
Insurance / yr$2,140
HOA / moNone
Other fixed / yr$1,320
Total est. operating / yr$12,085
HVAC installed2019
Roof installed2020
Water providerCity of Tempe
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$1,089

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.20%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-9.58%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.55

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,786
  • Operating$12,085
  • Debt service$28,953
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$29,760
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,786
Effective gross income$27,974
Less fixed operating−$6,490
Less variable operating−$5,595
Net operating income$15,890
Less annual debt service−$28,953
Pre-tax cash flow-$13,064
Loan amount$372,000
Monthly principal & interest$2,413
Cash invested$136,400
Operating expense ratio43.2%
Break-even occupancy137.9%
Gross rent multiplier16.7
Rent-to-price ratio0.500%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.20% cap rate, -9.58% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.55.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$496,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
Submarket median cap (3.28%)$485,000−2.2%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the Tempe South median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 13.8% above the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • TMP-01Subjectsubject · 3/2 · 1,620 sq ft/unit
    $2,480
  • TMP-02Same submarket · 4/2 · 1,985 sq ft/unit
    $2,620
  • LVN-04Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,622 sq ft/unit
    $2,095
  • STM-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit
    $2,180
  • AVD-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit
    $2,060
  • SNY-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,595 sq ft/unit
    $2,260
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
TMP-01 (subject)subject · 3/2 · 1,620 sq ft/unit$2,480
TMP-02Same submarket · 4/2 · 1,985 sq ft/unit$2,620
LVN-04Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,622 sq ft/unit$2,095
STM-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit$2,180
AVD-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit$2,060
SNY-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,595 sq ft/unit$2,260
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
TMP-01 SubjectTempe South—$496,0001,620$306
TMP-02Tempe SouthSame submarket$542,0001,985$273
GLC-05Glendale CentralElsewhere in metro$268,000940$285
SNY-02SunnyslopeElsewhere in metro$355,0001,288$276
SNY-01SunnyslopeElsewhere in metro$436,0001,595$273

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$456,500−8%-6.4%-7.5%-8.6%-9.7%-10.8%
$476,000−4%-7.0%-8.0%-9.1%-10.2%-11.3%
$496,000ask-7.4%-8.5%-9.6%-10.7%-11.8%
$516,000+4%-7.9%-9.0%-10.0%-11.1%-12.2%
$535,500+8%-8.3%-9.4%-10.4%-11.5%-12.7%

Cash-on-cash-12.7% → -6.4%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2019, 7 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2020, 6 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Tempe. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • No HOA

    No association. Nothing constrains rental use at the community level, and there is no fixed monthly charge in the expense line.