Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
Contact the desk

PRS-01

Peoria South · Peoria, AZ 85345 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 1989
Asking
$402,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,185
Est. cap rate
3.44%
Est. cash-on-cash
-8.72%
Est. DSCR
0.59
Rent / price
0.544%
$ / sq ft
$239
Est. cash flow / mo
-$803

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — painted stucco ranch elevation with a barrel-tile roof and mature mesquite. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — fenced rear yard with a rectangular pool and travertine deck. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Peoria pool property with no HOA. Pool service and the pool insurance loading are both carried explicitly rather than folded into a generic maintenance percentage.

  • Pool
  • Vaulted ceilings
  • RV gate
  • No HOA

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms3 / 2
Living area1,685 sq ft
Lot8,276 sq ft
Year built1989 (37 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Panel codePRS-01
LocationPeoria South, Peoria 85345
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$2,410
Insurance / yr$2,160
HOA / moNone
Other fixed / yr$1,320
Total est. operating / yr$10,819
HVAC installed2016
Roof installed2018
Water providerCity of Peoria
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$803

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.44%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-8.72%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.59

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,573
  • Operating$10,819
  • Debt service$23,466
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$26,220
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,573
Effective gross income$24,647
Less fixed operating−$5,890
Less variable operating−$4,929
Net operating income$13,827
Less annual debt service−$23,466
Pre-tax cash flow-$9,639
Loan amount$301,500
Monthly principal & interest$1,956
Cash invested$110,550
Operating expense ratio43.9%
Break-even occupancy130.8%
Gross rent multiplier15.3
Rent-to-price ratio0.544%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.44% cap rate, -8.72% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.59.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$402,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
DSCR 1.00$237,000−41.0%net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero
Submarket median cap (3.97%)$348,500−13.3%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields
Leverage turns (5.84%)$237,000−41.0%above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the Peoria South median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 3.3% above the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • PRS-01Subjectsubject · 3/2 · 1,685 sq ft/unit
    $2,185
  • PRS-02Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,408 sq ft/unit
    $2,020
  • ENC-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,690 sq ft/unit
    $2,650
  • EMS-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,740 sq ft/unit
    $2,115
  • LVN-04Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,622 sq ft/unit
    $2,095
  • TMP-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,620 sq ft/unit
    $2,480
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
PRS-01 (subject)subject · 3/2 · 1,685 sq ft/unit$2,185
PRS-02Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,408 sq ft/unit$2,020
ENC-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,690 sq ft/unit$2,650
EMS-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,740 sq ft/unit$2,115
LVN-04Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,622 sq ft/unit$2,095
TMP-01Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,620 sq ft/unit$2,480
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
PRS-01 SubjectPeoria South—$402,0001,685$239
PRS-02Peoria SouthSame submarket$355,0001,408$252
WMS-02West MesaElsewhere in metro$349,0001,465$238
WMS-01West MesaElsewhere in metro$318,0001,310$243
MRV-01MaryvaleElsewhere in metro$312,0001,284$243

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$370,000−8%-5.5%-6.6%-7.6%-8.7%-9.9%
$386,000−4%-6.1%-7.1%-8.2%-9.3%-10.4%
$402,000ask-6.6%-7.6%-8.7%-9.8%-10.9%
$418,000+4%-7.1%-8.1%-9.2%-10.3%-11.4%
$434,000+8%-7.5%-8.6%-9.6%-10.7%-11.9%

Cash-on-cash-11.9% → -5.5%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2016, 10 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2018, 8 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Peoria. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • No HOA

    No association. Nothing constrains rental use at the community level, and there is no fixed monthly charge in the expense line.